I am in the middle of a self-imposed blackout of all news
coverage related to tomorrow's elections, having had my fill of bogus "opinion
polls" that only report the "opinions" of the pollsters, and government
unemployment figures that have no bearing on reality.
I literally can not stand to see one more report that starts
out with the words "A new poll just out …" which is exactly how the
news began on the night last week when I shut it off and vowed not to watch again
until the election is over. And I can't stand to listen to one more pundit,
whose future television appearances hang in the balance, claiming that obscure
or non-existent data show how the election will go.
I even heard respected commentators last week saying President
Obama will get a boost from voters because he "looked presidential"
when he visited New Jersey and walked around with the governor viewing the damage from Hurricane Sandy.
Look, if you can't walk through an area hit by a natural
disaster, say "Let there be light," and make the power come back on
instantly, you don't "look presidential" unless the viewer defines
"presidential" as ineffective, baffled and incompetent.
Frankly, I thought Obama looked helpless and a bit lost. Even
the butt-kissing bleating of the alleged Republican governor of New Jersey,
who just wanted to open the floodgates of federal disaster relief money so he
can get re-elected or go on to national office, won't change the fact that
Obama can't do any more for Sandy victims than George Bush could do for Katrina
victims.
So sometime after 9 p.m. tomorrow I'll get myself a bowl of
cherry-vanilla ice cream and sit down in front of the television to watch the returns
come in. I may not turn on the sound
until there is some sort of clear trend.
Since I have not seen one single poll done by either
national or regional polling outlets that uses viable methodology or is based
on a simple desire to know what people are thinking - rather than to push the
agenda of the polling agency - I don't for a minute think Barack Obama is going
to win – at least in a relatively honest election.
I think that Mitt Romney will carry the popular and Electoral
College votes by a significant margin and I base this on observable conditions
around the country. People, lots and lots more people than the government
claims, are out of work, and many more are discouraged with no hope of things
getting better under the Obama Administration.
Don't agree? Then why does the national debt clock have a
category for "official unemployed" (12,235,647) and "actual
unemployed" (22,694,912) as of this writing?
Romney is offering a methodology to reverse the horrendous
downward trend that has marked this country since Obama took office and no
amount of scare tactics or abusive advertising can alter Obama's true record.
His constant efforts to blame his failures on someone else, hell, anyone else,
serve only to highlight the inadequacy of his administration.
Despite the all-out efforts of the news media to push people
into voting one way or another I don't think for even a second that the general
public is stupid or uninformed. We know what is going on, we live it every
single day, and not in a Beltway Bubble either.
The so-called Mainstream Media and even alternative media
outlets are reporting these bogus polls as if they are gospel. But most of the
polls I reviewed call people at random and ask them if they are registered
voters and have a party affiliation, or are "leaning" one way or another.
In addition to being at the mercy of the person answering the phone there
simply is no validation process in using that approach.
If you want to know what voters are thinking the best way is
to obtain the voter registration rolls in the area you are covering, and cull
the lists for the names of voters who voted in four of the last four elections –
four/four voters as they are called here.
Then you call these people until you get responses from
Republicans, Democrats and Unaffiliated voters that mirror the registration
percentages in that area. If you are polling in a region where the voter
registration is 32 percent Democrats, 28 percent Republicans and 40 percent
unaffiliated voters, then you keep calling until your responses equate to the
party registration percentages.
There is always a margin of error in this approach but
generally speaking, the more people you call who regularly vote narrows that
percentage. And it takes work, as opposed to the lazy man's polls we are
seeing.
But calling random "adults" or skewing the
percentages of people you interview by party – most polls have been
oversampling Democrats, often by double digits – will only result in answers
that give the pollsters what they wanted in the first place, not a realistic
view of how people view the candidates or how they will vote.
The polling organizations claim it is appropriate to skew
the sample because they are using turnout percentages from past elections. That
is just plain bull! Everything that matters in the world of politics has
changed since 2008 and if you want a realistic view of voter turnout this year
you have to call verifiable four/four voters and ask them in the appropriate percentages
if they intend to vote this year and for whom.
Otherwise you don't have a poll; you have a political ad
shrouded in a cloak of obfuscation.
Then we have the jobless numbers. The government reported
last week that the national unemployment rate is 7.9 percent; up one-tenth of
one percent from the previous month.
That number is not accurate. It does not reflect
the number of people who are out of work or "under-employed," it only
reflects the number of people who are getting unemployment benefits. The number
who are actually unemployed but who don't qualify for benefits or have
exhausted their unemployment benefits is conservatively twice what the
government reports.
But once an unemployed person loses their benefits the government makes believe they either have miraculously found work, or they just disappear. They don't exist, at least as far as the government is concerned.
The government also reported last week that 170,000 new jobs
were created in the previous month. Another statistic, another lie. I saw exactly one report,
during the Stewart Varney show on Fox Business Channel, noting that the
government figure includes people who got a part-time job or were hired as day
labor.
The report noted that some of these workers could have had
as little as one day of employment last month but the government still reports
them as fully employed. And we wonder why people don't trust the government?
The facts of the election are pretty straightforward. The
country is in a downward spiral and unless Obama's Democrats can steal a huge
number of votes they are going to lose. The only poll that will matter is the
one at the end of the night when all the votes are counted.
By Wednesday, regardless of what is said on television or
written in newspapers, we will know what the voters were really thinking. And
we either will be looking forward to Mitt Romney's inauguration and be on the
road to salvation, or dreading Obama's second term in which we will headed to
hell in a hand basket.
On a positive note, if the latter turns out to be true and
the USA does go to hell in a hand basket, we can at least be assured that we
won't be alone because the nether regions will already be jam packed with the
souls of pollsters and government workers whose job was to report false employment
figures.
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