Check the numbers folks. Barack Obama needs 63 delegate votes out of the remaining 86 to get to the mythical 2025 that he and the Mainstream Media claim would give him the majority of committed - not Super - delegates and the Democratic nomination to run for President of the United States.
There are three primaries left, Puerto Rico with 55 delegates, Montana with 16 and South Dakota with 15.
Obama needs all of Montana and South Dakota's delegates, which would give him 31, then he also needs 32 of Puerto Rico's 55 to get the magic 63. That is assuming that the national Democrats slit their own throats on May 31 and persist with their refusal to seat any delegates from Michigan and Florida, which both went for Hillary Clinton. If they do seat all or part of the Florida and Michigan delegations, the 2025 number means nothing. The equation will have to be recalculated, and it won't come out in Obama's favor.
But there is a problem with the equation that gives Obama 63 delegates in the last three primaries. First, he won't get all of the delegates in Montana and South Dakota, but more important, news reports say he is trailing Hillary Clinton in Puerto Rico.
To get enough delegates from Puerto Rico he will need at least 60 percent of the vote, assuming that he wins all of Montana and South Dakota's delegates. Pretty hard to do when she is on a popular vote roll. That makes it highly unlikely that he will even get a majority of the delegates there, much less more than 60 percent of them. If Hillary gets even five delegates each from Montana and South Dakota, Obama's required numbers increase to impossible levels in the range of 80 percent of Puerto Rico's delegates.
Barring a miracle, or Armageddon, or a Holocaust, or a plague, or a flood, or pestilence or divine intervention, Barack Obama can NOT get to the magic 2025 number with the primaries that are left. West Virginia and Kentucky went for Hillary in huge numbers and put a major smackdown on all the conventional wisdom that said the campaign was over.
Taking that as the real deal, let's look at another issue. Terence Richard "Terry" McAuliffe, Hillary Clinton's campaign manager, and former Democratic National Chairman.
Rush Limbaugh refers to him as 'the punk' such is the animosity between those two giants of differing political philosophies. That aside, McAuliffe is a street fighter at heart, and if you think for a minute that as Hiilary's campaign manager he won't be pulling out all stops on the convention floor to get the delegates swinging her way, you aren't paying attention.
Remember, Hillary has pulled a huge chunk of the popular vote in the last two months. She took in excess of 100,000 more votes between Oregon and Kentucky than Obama. She has momentum, and people in the category of rank and file voters are deserting Obama's cause in droves. He has 'peaked,' in political parlance.
And let's talk about this issue of 'peaking' for just a minute. This is what political strategists shoot for when they know they have a flawed candidate.
They bring their guy out for the public and media to see, and for a bit he looks like a real breath of fresh air. Everyone likes him, his numbers soar and for a bit he appears to be the designated candidate.
But then people who really know this candidate start talking amongst themselves. The talk starts getting out to a skeptical media which ignores it, because the media doesn't like turning around on itself.
But eventually the talk gets too loud, it is on the blogosphere, competing news organizations start looking into the talk to see if there is validity behind it, and suddenly reluctance to publish turns into a rush to publish.
Then the candidate's numbers start dropping and the strategists pray that they can stem the flow long enough to get past a certain voting date. That is what has happened to Barack Obama and in his case, time ran out and he didn't get what he needed.
Now, he is screwed.
This doesn't mean that he won't eventually get the nomination. But it means it is not assured, and there will be one hell of a fight at the Democratic convention. That fight is absolutely necessary for the Democrats because regardless of the coverage from the fawning media, Barack Obama can't beat John McCain.
Where did I get that? From the money that suddenly is pouring into McCain's coffers. Where do you think that is coming from? Mainstream Americans ladies and gentlemen.
They were really ready to give Barack Obama a chance back in the winter and early spring, but he spit in America's face, and all the king's democrats and all the king's media can't change what is in people's hearts.
It is Hillary or nothing if the Democrats are to mount any kind of challenge to McCain in November - she knows it, and so does Terry McAuliffe.
Wednesday, May 21, 2008